Revolution Déjà vu

Things seemed to have calmed down a bit in Kyrgyzstan, one day after the president (Kurmanbek Bakiyev) fled the capital (he's reportedly in his southern hometown of Osh, but that hadn't been confirmed last time I checked). Thankfully a leader emerged from a coalition of opposition groups, one Roza Otunbayeva [seen above] (former Ambassador to the US, and someone known for her strong opposition to corruption, the driving force behind Kyrgyz unrest ).

Bambino, as many people know, hails from Kyrgyzstan. He finally managed to get through to his family yesterday and everyone is fine, if a bit nervous. Our artists Gulnara Kasmalieva and Muratbek Djumaliev (M&G), who live in the capital, emailed early this morning to report that they too are fine, but that the damage had been done. Nearly every store or building in central Bishkek had been looted or torched.

Compared with the revolution in 2005 (the one that resulted in Bakiyev becoming president...he had strongly criticized the corruption of the previous president only to then become just as corrupt himself by most accounts), this one was much bloodier and more violent. This still from a film M&G shot of that 2005 revolution

stands in stark contrast to the awful photographs we saw from the violence yesterday, in which reports said 17 up to 100 people had been killed.

Of course the Kyrgyz people were doubly frustrated this time. Not only had they placed high hopes on Bakiyev delivering the reforms and improvements he had promised (only to see him install his relatives, including his reportedly "vicious henchman" of a son, into positions of power around him), but with the widespread poverty in the Central Asian nation---made only worse by the global recession, a series of incomprehensible hikes in utilities charges, and the fact that although Bakiyev had negotiated quite a hefty increase in the rent the US pays for the Bishkek airbase we use as a supply line into Afghanistan, most of the population never saw any of that money---the people had had enough. After Bakiyev was "re-elected" in a what most observers said was a highly fraudulent election, taking to the streets, again, apparently seemed the only way to balance things out.

This breaks my heart. The damage done to the economy by the last revolution was still evident when Bambino and I had visited in 2006 and still when he returned alone in 2008. How long it's going to take to put things back in order this time, with the whole world struggling now, is hard to say, but it leaves the population even more vulnerable.

In speculating on who's behind this revolution (we really don't know, it's only speculation), Bambino and I both suspect Russia (whereas we're both fairly sure the US was behind the previous one). For one thing, there were a lot more weapons on the streets for this takeover than the one in 2005, so we're sure someone was funding it (not many of the people we saw in photos holding those weapons looked like they could afford them on their own). Also there's this:

“The political behavior of the United States has created a situation where the new authorities may want to look more to Russia than to the United States, and it will strengthen their political will to rebuff the United States,” said Bakyt Beshimov, an opposition leader who fled Kyrgyzstan last August in fear for his life.

and this:

Paul Quinn-Judge, Central Asia project director for International Crisis Group, a research organization, said Russia had stoked anti-American sentiment in Kyrgyzstan in recent months, often over the issue of the base.

and this:

While Mr Bakiyev's relationship with the Kremlin was seen to be increasingly fragile, Mrs Otunbayeva is believed to have close ties to Moscow, which she thanked for its support in her first press conference as interim leader.

Indeed, despite Roza Otunbayeva's long ties with the US, she's not coming out with a terribly strong endorsement of our being there, which I believe she will work toward, but obviously feels the need to be careful about:

The unrest, which spread across the capital on Wednesday, seemed to pose a potential threat to a critical American air base supporting the NATO campaign in nearby Afghanistan. But Roza Otunbayeva, a former foreign minister who has emerged as head of a coalition of opposition groups, said Thursday that the supply line would not be immediately affected.

“Its status quo will remain in place,” she said at a news conference in the Parliament building. But she warned: “We still have some questions on it. Give us time and we will listen to all the sides and solve everything.”

The situation could become volatile again, though (Bambino's not convinced the violence is over), depending on Bakiyev's next stop. Otunbayeva is convincingly dismissing his options as nil, but there are two rumors floating about. One is that he actually never left Bishkek and is hiding on the US base outside the city. This is the most dangerous situation if true, IMO. Not only would it re-ignite major violence should he try to retake power, but if he's truly the guest of the Americans there it might launch protests at the base itself. The other rumor (Bambino heard this from family) is that he has gone to Osh and is organizing his own counter-protest, 50,000 people strong, to retake the capital. I suspect, now that Bakiyev's Bishkek home has reportedly been looted, though, that he won't do more than slink away with all the money he can steal. Bambino wants the international community to bring him (and his predecessor) to trial for robbing the people of their money. I concur. The people of Kyrgyzstan deserve much better than they've gotten from their government.